Fast Bowling: Looking Slightly Beyond the Raw Numbers

I’ve always loved fast bowling and thought this would be a fun exercise to see who the best fast bowler ever is. Now, obviously, I’m not an expert. I can’t pick up on all the soft skills of fast bowling because if I could, I wouldn’t be bowling off-spin for a fifth-division team. So for now, I’m just sticking to the numbers.

What I decided to do is go slightly beyond the regular numbers like average and strike rate. Instead, I thought it would be more fair to look at things like the strike rate factor and the average factor of each bowler. The reason is simple: just looking at raw numbers can be really misleading. For example, comparing Bumrah’s strike rate now during this pace-playing pandemic to someone like Glenn McGrath, who played half his career in the 90s and the other half in the 2000s, and Dale Steyn, who played in eras with flatter pitches, wouldn’t be fair.

That’s why I thought strike rate factors and average factors would be the best way to compare fast bowlers across all time. Basically, the strike rate factor shows how well a bowler’s strike rate was compared to the mean strike rate of other Pace bowlers in the matches they played. So it tells you how much better they were relative to the other Pace bowlers in the match. The same goes for the average factor; it shows how much better a bowler’s average was compared to the other Pace bowlers in their matches.

• Average Factor (AVG Factor) = Mean Average of Other Pace Bowlers ÷ Bowler’s Average
• Strike Rate Factor (SR Factor) = Mean Strike Rate of Other Pace Bowlers ÷ Bowler’s Strike Rate

So if someone's SR factor is 1.2 they are 20% better in terms of SR compared to the others pacers in that match.

I also kept a minimum of 200 test wickets as a criteria for a bowler to make the list.

I will admit from the start that there are issues with the average and strike rate factors. For example, if you’re playing in a really strong bowling line-up, it’s harder to stand out. So I’m not saying it’s a perfect metric, but I thought it would be a fun way to tackle the question and learn a bit along the way.

With that in mind lets start looking at AVG Factors and SR factors.

AVG Factor

Before diving into the average factors, I thought it’d be fun to check out the top 20 bowlers by average and see how many actually make it onto the average factors list.

Top 20 bowlers by average

Looking at the raw averages, the big standout is Bumrah, averaging just under 20, which is insane. Marshall and Garner are right up there too. Beyond that, it’s basically all the greats you’d expect to see.

But averages as we know only tell part of the story. So let’s check out the average factor and maybe get a bit more context behind the numbers.

TOP 20 Bowlers by AVG Factor

Looking at the top 20 by average factor, most of the usual greats are still there, but a few interesting twists appear. Gillespie and Bedser make the cut, while Rabada and Holding drop out. Rabada’s raw average of 21.74 is outstanding, but his average factor is only 1.18, probably because he bowled a lot on seam-friendly pitches. Holding missing out is a bit surprising; my guess is that he played in an incredibly strong bowling lineup, making it harder to stand out, which keeps his average factor lower.

McGrath unsurprisingly leads the pack with an average factor of 1.6. That is 10% better than the second best! Just behind him is a mini-group of Steyn, Pollock, and Imran Khan, with factors between 1.4 and 1.45. Hadlee and Garner are close behind at 1.38 and 1.37.

Bumrah, who topped the raw averages with under 20, is still excellent, but his average factor of 1.34 drops him to seventh. Cummins who was in the top 10 in raw averages also drops down a few spots when we look at AVG factor.

It is also interesting to see how similar raw averages can result in very different rankings once average factors are applied. Trueman’s average is slightly better than McGrath’s, yet McGrath rockets to number one while Trueman sits ninth. A similar shift happens with Steyn, Pollock, and Imran Khan, who were not even in the top 10 by raw average but climb to 2nd, 3rd, and 4th once factors are considered.

It’s also really interesting to see Gillespie, whose average of 26.14 is solid but not eye-popping, sitting just behind Bumrah in average factor. This really highlights how much a player’s era and the conditions they bowl in can shape their raw numbers. Bumrah’s raw average is an incredible 19.9, with an average factor of 1.34, while Gillespie, despite a higher average of 26.14, matches him with the same factor of 1.34. Gillespie often bowled on flatter pitches that favored batters, so achieving the same average factor as Bumrah shows just how impressive his performance really was. It’s a great example of why average factors offer a deeper insight than raw averages alone.

The key takeaway is that raw averages tell only part of the story. The average factor, while not flawless, provides a much richer perspective, highlighting who truly stands out across eras and how playing conditions influence the numbers.

SR Factor

Similar to what I did in the previous section, let's first start with the top 20 bowlers with the best Raw Strike Rates.

Raw SR

Unsurprisingly, Rabada tops the list with an insane strike rate of nearly 39. Steyn isn’t far behind, of course. Waqar Younis, who is one of the poster boys for strike rate fanatics, is at number 4. Bumrah and Cummins have sensational numbers as well. Although it would be fair to say that Bumrah and Cummins, along with Rabada, benefit from the eras and conditions they’ve bowled in, so it will be interesting to see where they rank in the top Strike Rate Factors.

So now lets look at the top 20 bowlers w.r.t Strike Rate Factor:

SR Factor

You can already see some massive movements here, much bigger than what we saw with the Average Factors. Nine bowlers from the top raw strike rate list do not make it into the top Strike Rate Factors. Cummins, who was number five on the raw SR list, misses out. Other notable names include Starc, Shami, MA Holding, Garner, and Hazelwood.

Unsurprisingly, Dale Steyn takes the top spot, and nobody would really expect otherwise. A raw strike rate of 42.39 in such a batting-friendly era is simply incredible, and it naturally translates into an outstanding strike rate factor. Trueman (2nd) and Donald (3rd) follow, with Waqar Younis in fifth. All of them are already renowned for their strike rates, so the top of the list feels exactly right.

Richard Hadlee takes the fourth spot on the strike rate factor list, which I found quite interesting. On the raw strike rate list, he sits at eleventh, and I had always thought of him more as a bowler defined by his excellent average. Seeing his strike rate factor this high was a real surprise or maybe I just need to brush up on my cricket knowledge.

I’ll be honest, I had to do a double take when I saw Chris Cairns at number six because wow, that is insane. I have always known him as a great all-rounder who could hit the ball very hard, but seeing him outperform Imran Khan, Rabada, Glenn McGrath, Bumrah, and many other greats on this metric was surprising. I cannot fully explain why he ranks so high. Maybe it is because he was a very capable bowler who often played in weaker bowling lineups, or perhaps the wickets he bowled on were flatter than usual. The mean strike rate in the matches he played was around 70, which could offer some explanation. Either way, seeing him perform this well on the strike rate factor is genuinely fascinating and I have tried to watch all the YouTube clips of him bowling since I saw his SR factor.

Rabada, who topped the raw strike rate list, only just makes the top ten in the strike rate factor with a score of 1.25. That feels crazy because his raw strike rate is under 40, which is outstanding, yet on this metric he is only 0.01 ahead of Glenn McGrath, who struck at nearly 52.

This seems to confirm what we probably already suspected: Rabada has benefited from bowling a lot on seam-friendly wickets and in a generally bowling-friendly era. The same pattern is visible with Bumrah, who was very high on the raw strike rate list but only just makes the top 20 here. Pat Cummins is another example; he was fifth on the raw list but doesn’t appear in the strike rate factor rankings at all. All of this highlights just how much modern fast bowlers’ numbers have been boosted by favorable conditions.

Another interesting observation is the rise of McGrath and Lillee. On the raw strike rate list, they were only 17th and 18th respectively, but in the strike rate factor rankings Lillee climbs to 8th and McGrath to 11th. This again shows how much raw numbers can be influenced by the era in which a player competes.

Bringing It All Together

Now that we’ve looked at the top 20 in Average Factor and Strike Rate Factor, I started thinking about how to combine them to see who really comes out on top. I wanted a way to account for both so we could figure out who the best fast bowler of all time might be. That’s where the geometric mean comes in.

The geometric mean works well here because it gives a balanced score. If a bowler is great in one area but weaker in the other, their combined score won’t be too high. It only rewards bowlers who are strong in both average factor and strike rate factor. You can think of it as a fair way to measure all-round effectiveness, rather than just taking a simple mean.

I also know some people value averages more, and others care more about strike rates. So first, I calculated a geometric mean with equal weighting, treating both factors the same. Then I tried a biased version: the factor you care more about gets two-thirds of the weight, and the other gets one-third. This way, if you favor strike rate, you’re rewarding bowlers who take wickets quickly while still ensuring they aren’t giving away too many runs. Similarly, if you favor average, you’re rewarding bowlers who are hard to score off while still factoring in their ability to take wickets efficiently. It’s a fair way to see who excels in the areas you value most.

Equally Weighted Geometric Mean

Equally Weighted Geometric Mean

Dale Steyn clearly leads on this metric (1.4649), with McGrath (1.4085) and Hadlee (1.3998) close behind. Looking back, McGrath dominated the AVG factor, with Steyn in 2nd place. But on the strike rate factor, Steyn took the top spot while McGrath fell to number 11. That balance is exactly what propels Steyn ahead overall. Hadlee is rewarded for his consistency across both metrics, landing in 3rd, not far behind McGrath.

Trueman and Donald complete the top five. Both excelled in the strike rate factor while also ranking in the top 10 for average, which cements their spots.

Among modern bowlers, Rabada, Bumrah, and Cummins all make the list. Bumrah just sneaks into the top 10, while Cummins and Rabada sit a bit further down. Rabada shines in the strike rate factor but misses the top 20 for average. Cummins appears on the average factor list but not the strike rate top 20. Because Cummins’ numbers are more balanced, he ends up slightly higher overall.

The really fun part is Chris Cairns sitting right between Cummins and Rabada, which is honestly insane. I did not expect him to make this top 20 for this as well. While he’s not one of the top 20 fast bowlers of all time, his performance on this metric is genuinely impressive. He not only outperforms his countrymen like Boult, Southee, and Wagner, but also ranks ahead of legends such as Holding, Ambrose, Walsh, Hazelwood, Thompson, and Akram.

Average Biased and Strike Rate Biased Geometric Mean

Average Biased GM

SR Biased GM

When we look at both the Average Biased Geometric Mean and the Strike Rate Biased Geometric Mean. As you’d expect, players who did better in averages tend to rank higher in the Average Biased Mean, and those who excel in strike rate do better in the Strike Rate Biased Mean.

What’s interesting is that Rabada makes the Average Biased list even though he’s not in the Top 20 Average Factors, his decent average combined with a strong strike rate gets him in. Similarly, Cummins shows up in the Strike Rate Biased list even though he wasn’t in the Top 20 Strike Rate Factors, thanks to his solid balance between the two.

At the very top, things don’t change much. Steyn, Trueman, and Hadlee are right up there in both lists. McGrath drops from No. 1 in the Average Biased to No. 5 in the Strike Rate Biased, while Imran Khan stays steady at No. 6 in both.

That’s all I wanted to highlight here. Honestly, I just added this bit because I had already made the extra Excel tabs. Personally, I think average and strike rate matter equally, but it’s fun to see how the rankings shift when you give one a little more weight.

Finding the Best of the Best

The next step was obviously to look at who the best fast bowler ever is. To do that, I took the top five bowlers from the equally weighted geometric mean and then checked how they stack up across a few different parameters. The four I chose were performance in Asia, performance outside Asia, performance on flatter wickets (measured by how they bowled in drawn games), and performance in result games. These are the four filters we’re going to look at, and they should give us a pretty clear picture of who truly stands out. I will rank them based on the geometric mean of their AVG and SR factors (Basically the list will be in descending order of the GM).

Performance In Asia:

Performance in ASIA

One small setback here is that Trueman never played a Test in Asia, which is a shame because I think he could have been quite successful there.

Among the four who did bowl in Asia, Steyn comes out on top. Hadlee is right up there too with some insane numbers. McGrath and Donald are both strong as well, though slightly behind. Steyn’s geometric mean is 1.8, while Hadlee is at 1.71, which is really impressive. I honestly did not realize Hadlee was this effective in Asia. I always knew Steyn was brilliant there, his Nagpur spell comes to mind, but seeing Hadlee finish above McGrath was a pleasant surprise. McGrath is still very strong, just not quite as high as Hadlee. And Donald, as always, proves his quality with another excellent showing.

Performance outside Asia:

Looking at their performances outside Asia shows what we might expect. McGrath is back at the top with an outstanding average factor and a solid strike rate factor, while Steyn is right behind him, performing equally well across both metrics. Trueman is also very close to Stey helped by his amazing SR factor. Hadlee, who was outstanding in Asia and ranked second, drops to number five here while still posting strong numbers. Donald holds his fourth position solidly as well, showing he is really good everywhere.

Performance outside Asia

Performances in Draws:

Performance in Draws

Looking at their performances on draws, Trueman tops the list, showing he can still be very effective in these flatter conditions. Donald remains strong in second place, maintaining his consistency. Hadlee drops to third but still posts solid numbers. McGrath and Steyn struggle slightly here, though McGrath still has an amazing average factor, showing he can contain runs and remain a very tidy bowler. Steyn, on the other hand, performs closer to an average bowler in these conditions, which might be his only downside so far, given that he has consistently ranked in the top two across all strike rate, average factor, and even the combined lists.

Performance in Result Games:

Performance in Result Games

Looking at the result games, Steyn is back to his usual best, claiming the top spot. Hadlee is not far behind, holding a very strong second position. McGrath performs brilliantly in terms of average factor, but his slightly lower strike rate factor places him in third, just behind Hadlee. Trueman and Donald post very similar numbers, coming in fourth and fifth respectively.

WHO IS NUMBER ONE?

According to my numbers, the three fast bowlers with the strongest claim to being the best ever are Richard Hadlee, Glenn McGrath, and Dale Steyn. Steyn consistently performs at the top across almost all metrics, ranking first or second in strike rate factor, average factor, and the combined geometric mean, with his only real weakness being his performance in draws, where he is closer to an average bowler.

McGrath dominates in average factor, showing his incredible ability to contain runs and maintain tight lines, though his strike rate factor is slightly lower than Hadlee and Steyn. His longevity is a massive plus, and he often bowled in a strong bowling lineup, which made it harder for his numbers to stand out individually, yet he still posted outstanding figures.

Hadlee has never topped any of the lists, but he has consistently held strong positions in every scenario. He was exceptional in Asia and performed very well in other conditions, making him reliably excellent across the board. Additionally, we have to remember that Hadlee also carried the pressure of being a capable lower order batter. His 25–30 runs often mattered significantly to the team, so he had to focus on that part of his game as well, something the other two did not have to manage.

So, in the end, who is the best fast bowler of all time? I cannot say definitively, but I am very confident that Steyn, Hadlee, and McGrath are the top three. According to the numbers, it might be :
1)Steyn
2)Hadlee
3)McGrath

However, I would place McGrath at number one, as he posted incredible numbers while bowling in an already strong bowling lineup, which makes it harder for his stats to stand out.Steyn comes second, and Hadlee third.

So my rankings:

1. McGrath
2. Steyn
3. Hadlee

That’s my take on the top fast bowlers of all time. What do you think about my analysis? I’d love to hear your feedback and any suggestions on how I can improve it. If this analysis works well, I might do a similar deep dive for spinners next.

Edit 1 : EDITED IT FOR CLARITY. I saw 2 comments saying I should compare fast bowler with other fast bowlers in the game. So yes these numbers compare pacers to other pacers in the matches.